legislation News & Analysis
2 articles
Market Mood
Prediction Markets Reach $17 Billion Monthly Volume Amid Legislative Challenges
Prediction markets have surpassed $17 billion in monthly trading volume, according to recent reports. The endorsement by Donald Trump highlights their growing significance, particularly in political forecasting, as evidenced by a 2025 Vanderbilt study that found Polymarket outperformed traditional polling in swing states during the 2024 election. CEO Vlad Tenev of Robinhood Markets stated that prediction markets are the fastest-growing business segment, with a revenue run rate exceeding $300 million and over 4 billion event contracts traded in January alone. Additionally, CME Group reported trading of 100 million event contracts within eight weeks earlier this year, which suggests robust market interest despite ongoing legislative scrutiny.
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Senate Advances DHS Funding Bill to End Partial Government Shutdown
On Friday, the Senate advanced a bill to fund most of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), excluding Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) funding. This step aims to conclude a partial government shutdown that has disrupted air travel, leading to long TSA lines. A House vote is expected as soon as Friday to finalize the bill before lawmakers' two-week recess. The shutdown began in February following federal actions resulting in two citizen deaths, leading to demands for reforms by Democrats regarding ICE.
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