CMEGroup News & Analysis
2 articles
Market Mood
Federal Reserve's Rate Decision Remains Unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%
At the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, it's expected that the FOMC will maintain the overnight borrowing rate in the range of 3.5%-3.75%. Traders are currently assigning a 0% probability to any rate cut or hike during this meeting. The next potential rate increase could come at the final meeting of the year, scheduled for December 8-9, with a 60% probability of a quarter percentage point hike. The decision will be accompanied by the ‘dot plot’ projections regarding future interest rates, inflation, and economic growth assessments.
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Prediction Markets Reach $17 Billion Monthly Volume Amid Legislative Challenges
Prediction markets have surpassed $17 billion in monthly trading volume, according to recent reports. The endorsement by Donald Trump highlights their growing significance, particularly in political forecasting, as evidenced by a 2025 Vanderbilt study that found Polymarket outperformed traditional polling in swing states during the 2024 election. CEO Vlad Tenev of Robinhood Markets stated that prediction markets are the fastest-growing business segment, with a revenue run rate exceeding $300 million and over 4 billion event contracts traded in January alone. Additionally, CME Group reported trading of 100 million event contracts within eight weeks earlier this year, which suggests robust market interest despite ongoing legislative scrutiny.
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