ONS News & Analysis
14 articles
Market Mood
Job Starts Drop to Lowest Level in Five Years: 540K in April
In April, the number of new job starts fell to just under 540,000, the lowest monthly figure since March 2021. Job vacancies during the March to May period decreased to 707,000, the lowest since February to April 2021. The unemployment rate slightly declined to 4.9% from 5% in the previous three months. Regular pay growth remained stable at an annual rate of 3.4%, which is the lowest rate in the private sector in five and a half years. These trends suggest a cautious labor market outlook that may impact decisions made by the Bank of England regarding interest rates.
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Inflation Holds Steady at 2.8%, Food Prices Slow to 17-Month Low
Inflation in the UK remained unchanged at 2.8% for the year ending May, despite expectations of an increase to 3%. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that transport costs rose the most, by 6.8%, the highest since December 2022, while food inflation decreased from 3% in April to 2.2%. Analysts suggested that the recent US-Iran peace deal could lead to slower inflation increases in the future. The upcoming interest rate decision from the Bank of England is expected to maintain the current rate at 3.75%.
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UK Economy Contracts by 0.1% Amid Iran War Impact on Businesses
The UK economy contracted by 0.1% in April 2023, marking its first monthly decline since August 2022, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This contraction, influenced by rising costs associated with the Iran war, raises concerns over future growth. Over the three months leading to April, the economy grew by 0.7% compared to the previous quarter. Economists anticipate that the Bank of England will maintain interest rates unchanged during its upcoming meeting due to the projected slowing economic activity.
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UK Government Borrowing Reaches £24.3bn in April 2023
In April 2023, the UK government recorded a borrowing of £24.3bn, £4.9bn higher than the same month last year and exceeding predictions of £20.9bn by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). This total represents the highest borrowing level for April since 2020, mainly attributed to increased spending on benefits, which rose by £2.7bn. Additionally, debt interest payments hit £10.3bn, marking a record high for this month. The revised total borrowing for the financial year ending in March stands at £129bn, which may prompt further adjustments to fiscal policy as the economic outlook remains uncertain.
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UK Inflation Rate Declines to 2.8% Amid Energy Price Cap Changes
The U.K. inflation rate decreased to 2.8% in April, according to preliminary data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), down from 3.3% in March. This decline was influenced by an energy price cap from Ofgem and lower electricity and gas prices. However, economists predict ongoing price increases due to rising energy costs linked to geopolitical events. The Bank of England is contemplating a potential interest rate hike of 25 basis points, which may take the 'Bank Rate' to 4% at its July meeting, as the economy faces pressures from unemployment rising to 5%.
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UK Economy Grows 0.3% in March Amid Iran War Impact
The UK's economy grew by 0.3% in March, contrary to analysts' expectations of a contraction. Overall growth for the first quarter was reported at 0.6%, as stated by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Contributing sectors included retailing and construction. However, analysts warn that the Iran conflict may negatively influence future growth, with rising energy and food prices expected to pressure disposable incomes. Recent borrowing costs have reached their highest level in 30 years, raising concerns about economic stability.
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UK Exports to U.S. Drop 25% After Tariff Changes by Trump
UK goods exports to the U.S. decreased by approximately 25% following the implementation of tariff changes by President Donald Trump, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This decline amounts to a fall of £1.5 billion or 24.7%. Despite a trade deal last year, imports from the U.S. increased, resulting in a trade deficit for the UK. The Scotch whisky sector, which is significant for Scotland’s economy, employs around 40,000 people but is insufficient to offset the overall UK trade deficit caused by the tariffs.
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UK Government Borrowing Falls by £19.8bn to £132bn in 2023
UK government borrowing decreased by £19.8bn to £132bn for the year ending in March, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This figure is below the forecasted £132.7bn by the Office for Budget Responsibility. In March alone, borrowing was £12.6bn, exceeding analyst expectations but lower than the prior year. Analysts predict deterioration in finances due to potential inflation and increased energy support, estimating a rise to approximately £145bn in borrowing by 2025/26, coupled with an estimated £12bn increase in interest payments this year.
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UK Inflation Rises to 3.3% After Iran War Impacts Fuel Prices
The UK inflation rate reached 3.3% in March, increasing from 3% in February, primarily due to a spike in fuel prices, which saw a month-on-month rise of 8.7%. The rise aligns with economist expectations and marks the largest increase in petrol and diesel costs in over three years. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) noted that air fares and food prices also contributed to inflation, which is projected to peak between 3.5% and 4% this year. Economic implications suggest higher energy costs may reduce consumer spending.
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UK Inflation Rises to 3.3% in March Amid Fuel Price Surge
UK inflation increased to 3.3% in March 2026, up from 3% in February, according to preliminary data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This rise is attributed to soaring fuel prices, particularly diesel, which neared £2.00 per litre. Economists had anticipated the increase, indicating that the Iran war has significantly impacted consumer prices. The Bank of England is facing a decision on interest rates, with a majority of economists expecting rates to remain unchanged for the year despite concerns over rising inflation and potential stagflation.
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UK Monthly Private Rents Rose 3.5% to £1,367 in September 2025
Average UK monthly private rents increased by 3.5% to £1,367 in the year leading to September 2025, according to provisional estimates by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Only five London postcodes currently have average room rents below £800, down from 81 in 2020. A survey conducted by Spareroom revealed that 30% of tenants in England faced rent increases since the Renters' Rights Act was enacted. With legislative changes coming into effect on May 1, the government will attempt to regulate rent increases, requiring two months' notice and limiting hikes to once a year.
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UK Young Men Living with Parents Hits 35% in 2025, ONS Reports
According to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), 35% of young men aged 20-35 in the UK were living with their parents in 2025, up from 26% in 2000. This trend is attributed to high rental costs and rising house prices. In contrast, the percentage of young women in the same living situation is 22%. Additionally, almost 30% of households in the UK were comprised of single individuals in 2025, with nearly half aged 65 and over, reflecting broader changes in family structures.
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UK Economy Grows 0.5% in February, Revised January Growth to 0.1%
The UK economy grew by 0.5% in February, the largest monthly increase in over two years, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This figure was higher than the expected 0.1% growth, following a revision of January's estimate from no growth to 0.1%. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its growth prediction for the UK in 2023 down to 0.8% from 1.3%, citing the ongoing US-Israeli war with Iran and its impact on energy prices. The services sector, accounting for over 75% of the economy, also grew by 0.5%, marking the fourth consecutive monthly rise.
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UK Government Borrowing Exceeds Expectations Amid Rising Public Spending
In February, UK government borrowing surpassed forecasts as an increase in tax receipts was overshadowed by higher public spending, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This trend signals potential challenges for fiscal policy, impacting market confidence and interest rates. Key figures revealed that despite tax revenue growth, unsustainable spending levels are raising concerns among investors about the government's financial stability. Analysts suggest this may influence bond yields and the future trajectory of monetary policy.
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