Strait of Hormuz Traffic Likely Disrupted Until January 2027

Traders predict a 66% chance that shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will not normalize before January 2027. The odds of resuming normal flow before August have decreased sharply from 66% to 21% in the past two weeks. Normal traffic is defined as a seven-day moving average of over 60 ships passing through. This instability is influenced by recent conflicts between Iran and Israel, affecting regional shipping dynamics.