China GDP Growth Forecast Downgrade to 4.0% in Q2:26 Amid Real Estate Slump

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Economists predict China's GDP growth will slow to 4.0% in Q2:26, down from a previous estimate of 4.6%. Retail sales growth is anticipated to stagnate at 0% for May after a record-low gain of 0.2% in April, according to a Reuters poll. Industrial output is expected to rise slightly to 4.3% in May, while fixed-asset investment is forecasted to drop by 2% in the first five months, a larger decline than the prior 1.6%. Real estate continues to be a significant drag, contributing to a 13.7% decline in investment.