nonfarm payroll News & Analysis

Kalshi Traders Forecast 118,000 Jobs in Upcoming Jobs Report

Kalshi traders forecast job growth of 118,000 for this week's nonfarm payroll report, which is a drop from May's reported 172,000 jobs. In contrast, the Dow Jones consensus projected a significant decline. Traders assign a 71% chance the unemployment rate will exceed 4.2%, but only a 30% probability it will surpass the current rate of 4.3%. Additionally, hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.5% annually, compared to 3.4% in May. This data is crucial for market expectations and economic assessments.