Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR) and Fed Rate Hike Impact

The Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR) benefitted from rate cuts in 2025, contributing to the best first half for small-cap stocks in 35 years in 2026. Currently, the market suggests a 57% chance of a rate hike from the Federal Reserve, with expectations that the federal funds rate could rise by at least 50 basis points over the next year. The ETF holds 838 small-cap stocks with a median market cap of $10.6 billion and a P/E ratio of 17. The upcoming Fed meeting will be crucial for investors considering the potential impact on small-cap stocks’ borrowing costs.