Treasury's $4 Billion Bond Buybacks Increase 10-Year Yield to 5%

In August, the Treasury announced plans to double its long-bond buybacks to $4 billion or more each week until November 4. Following this announcement, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 5% as of September 18, up from just below 4%. The increase in yields is attributed to factors such as the U.S. government's budget deficit and inflation, which have led to a negative total return of 3.2% so far in 2026 for the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). Investors anticipating lower rates may be disappointed, as mortgage rates, which track the 10-year yield, are expected to rise alongside yields.