U.S. Recession Odds Rise to 48.6% According to Moody's as Oil Prices Surge

Moody's Analytics has raised the likelihood of a U.S. recession to 48.6% over the next 12 months, while Goldman Sachs estimates this at 30% and Wilmington Trust at 45%. The increase in recession expectations is attributed to geopolitical risks, particularly the ongoing conflict in Iran, and rising oil prices, which have increased by $1.02 per gallon (35%) in the past month according to AAA. In normal conditions, the likelihood of recession is about 20%. The rising recession forecasts place pressure on policymakers amid persistent inflation concerns in the labor market.