United Airlines (UAL) Lowers 2026 Profit Forecast Amid Higher Fuel Costs

United Airlines (UAL) has lowered its adjusted earnings forecast for 2026, expecting between $0.50 and $1.50 per share in the fourth quarter. This range is below Wall Street's estimate of $1.76 per share. At the high end, United's full-year 2026 adjusted earnings are projected to be no more than $7.22 per share, down from a prior forecast of $9 to $11 per share made in mid-July.

Fuel prices significantly impacted the outlook, with United forecasting an average fuel cost of $4.80 per gallon in Q4, up from $3.90 per gallon in Q3. CEO Scott Kirby indicated the airline is passing on about 72% of the fuel cost increase to customers through higher airfares. Despite higher fares, passenger bookings increased by more than 2% compared to the previous year. United's Q3 results showed net income of $1.03 billion, an 8.5% rise year-over-year, and revenue of $17.88 billion, up 17.4% from last year.

This profit revision matters because the increased fuel costs are eroding airline profits despite strong demand, leading to higher ticket prices. Investors should note United's lowered earnings per share guidance and rising fuel expenses as key factors that will likely constrain profitability in the near term.