What is a realistic return from stocks?
Around 7 to 10 percent a year on average for the US market before inflation, roughly 6 to 7 percent after. That average hides big swings: individual years range from deeply negative to over 30 percent.
The long-run average for the US stock market, including dividends, is about 10 percent a year before inflation and somewhere around 6.5 to 7 percent after it. That figure comes from roughly a century of data, and it is the number most planning tools use.
The word "average" is doing heavy lifting. Almost no individual year returns 10 percent. The market delivers plus 25 one year, minus 15 the next, plus 8, minus 3, plus 30, and the average of the mess works out to the long-run figure. Expecting the average every year is how people get discouraged by ordinary bad years.
It is also a market figure, not a stock-picker’s figure. The average investor who trades in and out earns noticeably less than the market, because of fees, taxes and mistimed moves. Sitting in an index fund and doing nothing is one of the few strategies that reliably captures the whole average.
For planning, many people use 7 percent before inflation to be a bit conservative. At that rate money doubles roughly every ten years, which is enough to make regular saving over a working life add up to something substantial.
Informational only, not financial advice. Updated September 4, 2026.
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