Bond Market Faces Deep Loss Amid Rising Oil Prices Over $110 Per Barrel

AI Summary

Major bond fund managers, including JPMorgan and Pimco, indicate that the bond market may be underestimating economic slowdown risks due to ongoing conflicts. Oil prices have surpassed $110 per barrel, contributing to the steepest monthly loss in the US Treasury market since October 2024. Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a recession in the next 12 months to about 30%, while Pimco estimates it at over one-third. Treasury yields have risen significantly, with rates on two- and five-year Treasuries surging by more than half a percentage point since late last month, and thirty-year yields nearing 5%.